In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Consider the over on Zay Jones’ receptions prop
We like to play props against the Cleveland defense, so let’s take the over on Zay Jones’ receptions.
Zay Jones’ receptions prop, current line:
The Browns use man coverage on 45% of opponent dropbacks, the league’s highest rate and far above the NFL average of 24%. This gives us an edge in prop betting because teams will stray from their typical target share distribution against Cleveland.
For the Jaguars, Zay Jones appears to be the receiver with the most stark difference in usage based on zone versus man coverage.
According to TruMedia, Jones has seen a 13% target share against zone coverage in the six games he’s been active (fifth on the team) compared to 23% against man coverage (tied for second).
Jones’ reception prop was available at 2.5 last week, but it likely rises to 3.5 after a five-catch performance on Monday Night Football.
Continue to take the over at 3.5, but maybe it’s best to stay away if it were to rise to 4.5 due to the overall quality of the Browns defense.
Consider the over on CeeDee Lamb’s receptions prop
In what should be a high-scoring game against the Eagles, take the over on CeeDee Lamb’s receptions.
CeeDee Lamb’s receptions prop, current line:
Based on the Dallas Cowboys’ recent usage of CeeDee Lamb, this almost looks like a matchup-proof prop 一 and the only scenario in which it may not be playable is when Dallas is expected to win in a blowout.
Lamb has hit the over on this prop in five of seven games, only falling short in non-competitive games against the Commanders and Panthers.
In the last meeting between these teams, Lamb had 11 receptions on 16 targets, easily clearing the over of 6.5 receptions.
The Eagles pass defense has struggled this season, and that issue has been exacerbated by their potent offense, which forces teams to play quickly and throw at a high rate.
As a result, the Eagles are allowing a league-high 26.1 completions per game 一 which bodes well for a receiver like Lamb who is peppered with targets.
Lamb also benefits from the Eagles’ tendency to line up in single-high coverages (63% outside the red zone).
According to TruMedia, Lamb leads Dallas with a 31% target share versus single-high coverages compared to 26% versus two-high coverage.
Consider the under on Josh Jacobs’ receiving yards prop
The Minnesota defense is a bad matchup for pass-catching running backs, so take the under on Josh Jacobs’ receiving yards.
Josh Jacobs’ receiving yards prop, current line:
This prop is riding a four-game win streak, and the Vikings defense will likely suppress Josh Jacobs’ involvement in the passing game.
Due to Minnesota’s high blitz rate, running backs tend to see fewer targets in this matchup. In fact, the receiving yards under is 9-3 on the year for starting running backs against the Vikings.
Minnesota blitzes at the league’s highest rate (47%), per TruMedia, which should have a direct impact on Jacobs’ opportunities.
Jacobs’ target share against the blitz sits at 6.9% compared to 15.9% on non-blitzes.
Consider the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop
We’ve been riding this prop for a few weeks, so let’s stick with it and take the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception.
DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop, current line:
I’ve stayed on this prop despite a couple of losses, and it paid off with a win last week. It is now 4-2 since Will Levis took over at quarterback.
According to TruMedia, 31% of Levis’ pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, the league’s highest rate by a wide margin. He also leads the league with 21% of his targets at 20 or more yards downfield.
Due to Levis’ aggressive tendencies, Hopkins has 23 targets at 15 or more yards downfield over the last six weeks 一 only CeeDee Lamb has more.
Hopkins should get plenty of opportunities this week against the Miami Dolphins with Tennessee likely playing from behind.