Today’s Horse Racing Tips
For today’s horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at the All-Weather meetings at Southwell and Newcastle, with four selections now online.
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13:15 Southwell – Murbih – 1pt @ 14/1
Murbih was showing a career-best level all throughout January, winning once and placing three times, including twice in 0-90’s, but blotted his copybook a couple of weeks ago. The jockey reported that he was never travelling there and having received a bump not long after they left the stalls, it might be a run that’s worth completely ignoring in the hope that he bounces back to form at a nice price.
There’s plenty of pace on here with no less than eight runners who have set the gallop on one of their recent outings and that will favour Murbih’s style of racing. The issue is his well-being and whether that last run indicates that he has gone off the boil, but sprinters are often so in-and-out that it never bothers me when there’s a bad run on the slate. 14/1 is big – I’d have him single-figures in this field.
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15:35 Southwell – Non Mollare – 1pt @ 5/1
Non Mollare looked unlikely to ever win a race when trained in Ireland but since she came over to Daragh Bourke, she has improved to the point that she looks borderline progressive. Five runs here have yielded a win and two seconds, with the drop to classified company leading to a C&D win and a head-second over 7f at Lingfield, which definitely put too much demands on her speed reserves.
The way she finished out last time was very encouraging nonetheless (winner won again since) and returning to the mile will help her case. Jason Hart returns, a positive given the tune he got out of her for the win, and although this is a handicap, I think the assessors have been more than fair with leaving her on a mark of 51. She could have a few pounds in hand if maintaining her recent level.
17:15 Newcastle – Snag It – 1pt @ 11/1
Snag It hasn’t been with the Kevin Frost yard for all that long and after flopping on his first start in January, he ran a bit better second time up. That came over an inadequate 7f trip at Southwell, where he raced handily, tried to get involved in the straight and predictably weakened away. I’d view it as a run he can build on and he gets an extra three furlongs to race over today, which will be a big help.
It’s interesting to see headgear going back on, especially the tongue-tie being used as his sole win in Ireland came with a tongue-tie reapplied (on a drop in trip from 1m 5f to 1m 1f) and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a completely different horse this time around. It’s a drop in grade as well and Frost has had the last six weeks to get him right for this. If he has, he’s bound to be a player late on.
18:45 Newcastle – Dougies Dream – 1pt @ 10/1
Dougies Dream is 2-3 in 0-65’s over a mile, the sole defeat coming on heavy ground, and he should strip a lot fitter for his recent C&D comeback following 114 days off the track. That was a really poor effort in which he was held up in rear and never threatened to make any kind of forward move, but it was a decent 0-75 and the betting suggested his fitness may not have been where it needed to be.
Last season’s first win came on the back of a reappearance run so he might just be the sort who takes a bit of getting ready and lots of the Nigel Tinkler horses can show dramatic form swings from one day to the next. He has an easy C&D win off 2lbs higher on his record as well and if he’s able to turn up here and produce something close to last season’s best, he’ll be in the mix at some stage!
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