This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders Betting Odds, Pick and Predictions for Week 11
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One of the more underwhelming matchups of Week 11 features the Commanders hosting the Giants. Let’s try to spice up the game a little by highlighting some wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Giants at Commanders Betting Odds for Week 11
Giants: Spread +8.5 (-108), +360 Moneyline
Commanders: Spread -8.5 (-112), -470 Moneyline
Game Total: 37 points
The Giants are 2-8 and injuries have them well on their way to one of the top picks in the 2024 Draft. In their last two games, they have been outscored a combined 79-23.
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Giants at Commanders Betting Picks This Week
The Commanders want to throw the ball early and often. Their defense has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which also forces their offense to throw a lot to keep pace. With them playing that style of offense, Sam Howell has attempted at least 41 passes in six of their last seven games. That included a matchup with the Giants in Week 7 when he attempted 42 passes.
Considering how often Howell throws the ball, the line on his pass attempts prop is pretty low. He has only had three games this season in which he attempted fewer than 35 passes. Part of the reason why it has been set this low is that the Commanders are significant favorites, so they might not need to throw as much in the second half. Still, even with the Cowboys routing the Giants last week, Dak Prescott attempted 35 passes. Take the over for Howell.
Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Sam Howell over 34.5 pass attempts (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Now that Tommy DeVito is under center, it’s clear the Giants want to try and ride Saquon Barkley on offense. The lopsided score limited him to 13 carries against the Cowboys last week, which he turned into 66 yards. Prior to that, he had four straight games with at least 16 carries and 77 rushing yards. When he faced the Commanders previously, he turned 21 carries into 77 yards.
The Commanders have allowed an average of 116.6 rushing yards per game this season. Barkley did reportedly tweak his previously sprained ankle when he played the Cowboys, but he has been practicing in a limited fashion this week, so all indications are that he will play. The Giants know they need Barkley to thrive if they are going to have any chance of winning this game, so look for him to get enough carries to reach this over.
Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Saquon Barkley over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Despite Howell throwing so much, Terry McLaurin isn’t having the best of seasons. After registering three straight campaigns with at least 1,053 receiving yards, he only has 601 yards through 10 games this year. He hasn’t had a single 100-yard performance, with his season-high yardage total being the 90 yards that he posted against the Giants in Week 7.
While McLaurin hasn’t been racking up yards, it’s not because of a lack of involvement in the offense. He is averaging 7.9 targets, which has enabled him to record at least five receptions in a game seven times. The Giants’ secondary is compromised with Adoree’ Jackson (concussion) out, so look for McLaurin to haul in at least five passes again.
Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Terry McLaurin over 4.5 receptions (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Giants at Commanders Prediction
DeVito has been bad, but the Giants don’t have much of a choice and will keep throwing him out there. While he did record two touchdown passes last week, he only threw for 86 yards. In his two starts, he has been picked off three times. Look for the Commanders to win this game and for the under to hit with the Giants’ struggling to score.