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Fifteen games are on tap in NFL Week 14, the last bye week of the season. With pro point spread favorites dominating for a second straight week, my Week 13 underdog picks came up empty (0-3) against the spread, dropping my season ATS record to 15-24 (.385).
The goal now is a late-season surge, starting with a trio of Week 14 underdog ATS selections.
If you’re deciding which online sportsbook to go with, take a look at our best NFL betting sites.
NFL Week 14 best underdog bet: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5 or better)
This looks to be a more favorable underdog week, including this NFC North matchup in the Windy City.
These teams met only three weeks ago in Detroit, and the Lions required a spirited fourth-quarter rally — 17 unanswered points over the final 4:15 — to edge the visitors 31-26.
Justin Fields and the Bears covered the 8-point spread — part of a 4-4 straight-up, 5-3 ATS current run since starting the season 0-4 straight-up and against the number.
The Lions are trending in the opposite direction, covering three of their last six games after a sizzling 5-1 ATS start.
Throw in Chicago’s extra rest coming off a bye, Detroit’s mounting injury issues, and the December outdoor elements in Chicago, and we’ll go with Da Bears to cover, if not spring the outright upset.
NFL Week 14 best underdog bet: Seattle Seahawks (+10.5 or better) at San Francisco 49ers
It’s not easy going against the league’s hottest team and current Super Bowl favorite in the 9-3 Niners, who are 4-0 with a 21.3-point average margin of victory since their Week 9 bye.
But that also puts Brock Purdy and Co. in letdown territory — especially coming back home after an emotional 42-19 road romp in last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game rematch in Philadelphia.
The game prior to that, the 49ers rolled a 31-13 win as a 7-point road favorite in Seattle — part of a current three-loss-in-four-game stretch for the Seahawks.
Now 6-6 and on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture, Seattle is in need of an immediate turnaround. Geno Smith and the Seahawks nearly did just that last week in a hard-fought, 41-35 loss as a 9.5-point underdog in Dallas.
Look for them to follow the same formula Sunday in Santa Clara and play their NFC West rivals tough for the road cover.
NFL Week 14 best underdog bet: Las Vegas Raiders (+3 or better) vs. Minnesota Vikings
“Passtronaut” QB Josh Dobbs and the Vikings have come down to Earth since a five-game midseason win streak, dropping their last two games.
Turnovers were the primary culprit as Minnesota gave the ball away seven times in those two defeats, giving them 24 on the season — the second-highest total in the league.
And outside of that 5-0 stretch, Minnesota is only 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the season. Like the Vikings, the Raiders also are coming off a late, Week 13 bye and are 9-5 ATS at home since 2022, including a 4-2 mark so far this season.
Look for these trends to continue Sunday in Sin City as the Silver & Black gets the home cover if not the outright win.
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