Home » NFL Week 14 Preview: Fantasy football advice, betting tips and matchups to watch | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

NFL Week 14 Preview: Fantasy football advice, betting tips and matchups to watch | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

• More Moore?: Cleveland Browns WR Elijah Moore could be in for another huge day with Joe Flacco slated to start against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Upset Brewing?: The Philadelphia Eagles are finally healthy on both sides of the ball and are getting 3.5 points in Dallas. Look for the Eagles to get back on track on Sunday Night Football.

• Get ahead of the game: PFF’s Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.

Estimated reading time: 10 minutes


New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Matchup to watch: Patriots LT Trent Brown vs. Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith

Brown has struggled to stay on the field this year, but when he’s played, he’s been fantastic. He is the No. 3 graded offensive tackle in the NFL and has the third-highest PFF run-blocking grade (86.5). He’ll have a tough assignment in Week 14 with Alex Highsmith, who is one of the best No. 2 edge rushers in the NFL.

Fantasy breakout: Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott

There aren’t many options in this matchup, especially with the point total sitting at 30, but Ezekiel Elliott is a fine flex play this week with Rhamondre Stevenson out of the lineup. He should see around 15 touches and will be the team’s only goal-line running back on Thursday. Elliott will struggle to be efficient in this game, but the volume alone makes him a worthwhile play.

Favorite bet: Steelers WR George Pickens over 41.5 receiving yards (-116)

Look for Mitchell Trubisky to be more aggressive than Kenny Pickett in the passing game and take some shots to Pickens down the field. All he needs is two or three catches to go over his receiving yardage total set for Thursday. Look for him to get that done by halftime.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Matchup to watch: Falcons RG Chris Lindstrom vs. Buccaneers DT Vita Vea

Lindstrom finished as PFF’s No. 1 graded offensive guard last season and is on pace to do it again. He is the highest-graded run blocker in the NFL (90.6) but will have quite the challenge ahead of him with Vita Vea on the other side. Vea is still one of the league’s top-run defenders and will be tasked with trying to slow down the Falcons’ rushing attack. This should be a fantastic battle to watch in Week 14 between two of the best players at their respective positions.

Fantasy breakout: Falcons WR Drake London

London was held in check in Week 13, catching just one pass for eight yards. Nonetheless, this is a really good matchup for him with the secondary of the Buccaneers struggling this season. While it’s admittedly hard to trust London week to week, this is a good matchup for him and one that he should exploit.

Favorite bet: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing TDs (+140)

The Falcons could be without No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell on Sunday (concussion), which is good news for Mayfield. He should have no problem carving up this secondary in Atlanta. With all his weapons in the passing game, take Mayfield to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns in this NFC South matchup.


Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Matchup to watch: Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Ravens SS Kyle Hamilton

Hamilton has been one of the best safeties in the league this season and has transformed Baltimore’s defense. He’s not going to cover Cooper Kupp one-on-one in the slot but expect Hamilton to play a lot near the line of scrimmage from that slot position. Slowing down Kupp and Puka Nacua will be priority No. 1 for the Ravens in this matchup.

Fantasy breakout: Ravens TE Isaiah Likely

With Mark Andrews (ankle) set to miss the remainder of the 2023 season, Isaiah Likely will replace him in the starting lineup. The second-year tight end is a dynamic weapon after the catch and has shown some flashes of explosiveness whenever he’s been targeted. Against a weak pass defense, make sure to get Likely in your lineups ahead of Week 14.

Favorite bet: Rams +7

The Ravens are coming off a bye and have done well against top-tier offenses at home, but the Rams are a different team when Kyren Williams is on the field. Los Angeles might not have the personnel to win this game on defense but expect the offense to put up points and keep this game competitive.


Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup to watch: Bears RT Darnell Wright vs. Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

Hutchinson won the game the last time these two teams played, creating a strip-sack for a safety against Wright. The Bears need Wright to play better to stop one of the top young edge rushers in the NFC this week.

Fantasy breakout: Bears QB Justin Fields

The Lions have gotten shredded on defense over the last few months, and there is no reason to expect things to change in Week 14. Justin Fields is a fantasy QB1 in this matchup, so he should be able to total over 300 yards and get into the end zone multiple times. There aren’t many quarterbacks you’ll want to start over Fields this week.

Favorite bet: Lions -3.5

The Bears should have won this matchup between these two teams, but the Lions emerged victorious with a bunch of late-game scoring. Don’t expect the Bears to keep this one quite as competitive. The Lions are really clicking on offense and should be able to score 30-plus points on Sunday. Take the Lions to win and cover in this NFC North matchup.


Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup to watch: Colts LT Bernhard Raimann vs. Bengals EDGE Trey Hendrickson

The Colts have found their left tackle of the future in second-year LT Bernhard Raimann. He is the NFL’s No. 9 graded offensive tackle (79.7) and has excelled as a pass blocker, but he will be challenged in Week 14 against one of the premiere edge rushers in the league in Trey Hendrickson. Look for the Colts to help Raimann in this one to avoid having Hendrickson ruin the entire offensive game plan.

Fantasy breakout: Colts WR Alec Pierce

Michael Pittman is a must-start receiver every week but consider putting Alec Pierce into your lineup this week as a FLEX play. The Bengals have been gashed through the air this season and have allowed the second-most explosive plays in the NFL. Pierce had his first 100-yard receiving day in Week 13 and his role in the offense has only grown. He is worth a play this week against the Bengals.

Favorite bet: Bengals +2.5

The Bengals are 2.5-point home dogs, but the line seems slightly off. The Bengals have found something in Jake Browning, who was finally allowed to throw the ball downfield against the Jaguars. And with a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup, the Bengals have the weapons to keep pace in this game. Take the Bengals to cover in Week 14 and get right back into the AFC North Wild Card hunt.


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)

Matchup to watch: Browns LT Geron Christian vs. Jaguars EDGE Josh Allen

Josh Allen is one of the most underappreciated pass-rushers in the league and he’s having the best season of his career. He has a career-high 13.5 sacks and will now face a backup left tackle in Geron Christian on Sunday. Advantage to Josh Allen and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fantasy breakout: Browns WR Elijah Moore

Amari Cooper left in Week 13 due to an injury and that gave Elijah Moore a more prominent role in the offense. Playing with his former New York Jets teammate (Joe Flacco), Moore had a season-high 83 yards on 12 targets. Expect him to continue playing a big role in the offense, especially if Flacco is still starting at quarterback.

Favorite bet: Jaguars +3

This is one of the toughest games of the week to predict with both teams playing backup quarterbacks, but the Browns are the more banged-up team heading into this matchup. Expect this to be a really close game, but for the Jaguars to find a way to cover on the road in Cleveland.


Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-5)

Matchup to watch: Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

After missing most of the season with an injury, Jaycee Horn is back and is already playing at an elite level. The Panthers desperately needed him back in the lineup and he should see a healthy dose of Chris Olave on Sunday. Expect the Saints to try to move Olave around to avoid Horn, but this should be a fantastic battle whenever they are lined up across from one another.

Fantasy breakout: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

The Saints are among the worst teams in the NFL against the run and it’s only gotten worse as the season has progressed. The Panthers can’t throw the ball, so expect to see plenty of Hubbard on Sunday. He has recorded 196 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks and is a must-start against the Saints.

Favorite bet: Panthers +5

The Saints can’t stop the run and could be without starting QB Derek Carr this week. Now, that might not be much of a loss. But it could help the Panthers stay in this game. Take the Panthers +5 and expect this to be a three-point game in New Orleans.


Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. New York Jets

Matchup to watch: Jets RT Carter Warren vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson

Anderson is coming off the best game of his young career in Week 13, recording eight pressures and two sacks. He has another favorable matchup in Week 14, taking on Carter Warren, who has a 39.3 PFF pass-blocking grade this year (175 offensive snaps). If the Texans want to avoid the upset in this game, they’ll need Anderson to have another monster performance this Sunday.

Fantasy breakout: Texans TE Dalton Schultz

Schultz missed the Week 13 meeting against the Broncos, but the expectation is that he should be back on the field for this game. Schultz has been a very reliable option in the passing game for the Texans, and they’ll need him to play well against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Look for Schultz to see a ton of action in this matchup.

Favorite bet: Jets +5.5

Without Tank Dell, the Texans aren’t very explosive on offense. They should be able to score enough to win this game but don’t expect a blowout, especially on the road. Look for the Jets to lean on their defense to keep this game close.


Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Matchup to watch: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson vs. Raiders LB Robert Spillane

Hockenson has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL this season, and he’ll face a pair of linebackers in Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo who have struggled mightily in coverage. Spillane has been the more effective linebacker of the two, but this is a matchup that the Vikings should be able to attack early and often on Sunday.

Fantasy breakout: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Welcome back, Justin Jefferson! After missing the last two months with a hamstring injury, Jefferson is expected to return to the lineup in Week 14 against the Raiders. And what a great matchup this is for him in his return. Jefferson will see a secondary that just released one of their starting cornerbacks (Marcus Peters) and has struggled to stop opposing No. 1 receivers all day. Look for Jefferson to post WR1 numbers right away.

Favorite bet: Vikings -3

The Vikings and the Raiders are coming off their bye weeks and should be fresh entering this contest. But the Vikings should be able to win this game because of DC Brian Flores. No team in the NFL blitzes at a higher rate than the Vikings and that could spell trouble for the Raiders, who have created the fewest explosive plays in the NFL this season. Look for rookie QB Aidan O’Connell to struggle and for the Vikings to win and cover in Week 14.


Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Matchup to watch: Seahawks RT Abraham Lucas vs. 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa

Lucas could not play in the previous meeting, but he should be a big upgrade over Jason Peters in Week 14. Bosa had a huge game the last time these two teams played, but this is a more difficult matchup for him than two weeks ago. Bosa still has the advantage, but look for the Seahawks to give Geno Smith more time in the pocket this time around.

Fantasy breakout: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

Deebo Samuel had a big performance last week, scoring three touchdowns against the Eagles. Aiyuk managed to get into the end zone, but he has not gone over 50 receiving yards in the last two games. Expect that to change in Week 14 with the Seahawks struggling to stop opposing receivers. This should be a huge game for Aiyuk and he should post WR1 numbers this week.

Favorite bet: Over 46.5 points (-110)

The 49ers are on fire on offense now that Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are back in the lineup. They have averaged 33.5 points per game over the last month, and that likely won’t change here against the Seahawks. Take the over 46.5 points in this matchup as the 49ers could easily score 35-plus points in this meeting.


Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie

If the Bills are going to win this game and climb back into the AFC wild card hunt, they will need a huge game from Diggs. Nonetheless, he’s been held in check lately, averaging just 58.2 yards per game. He will have a tough assignment in Week 14 with second-year CB Trent McDuffie playing at an All-Pro level. The winner of this matchup will likely decide the outcome of this AFC showdown.

Fantasy breakout: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

The Chiefs have had several injuries to their linebackers and safeties over the last two weeks, which has hurt their ability to stop tight ends. That sets up well for Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging nearly 60 receiving yards over his last six games. He is a must-start against the Chiefs in Week 14 in a game that should turn into a shootout.

Favorite bet: Over 47.5

Kansas City’s offense has been lackluster this season, averaging 22.9 points per game. However, Buffalo’s defense can be exposed in the passing game. Expect both teams to score over 25 points in Week 14 and for the total to go way over in this huge AFC matchup.


Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

Matchup to watch: Chargers LT Rashawn Slater vs. Broncos EDGE Baron Browning

After missing most of the 2023 season with an injury, Slater has returned to being one of the top left tackles in the league. His 80.7 PFF pass-blocking grade is the ninth-highest among all offensive tackles this season. The Broncos will throw several different edge rushers at him on Sunday, but look for Browning to see a lot of Slater. Browning has played well this season, but this matchup favors LA.

Fantasy breakout: Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

Courtland Sutton has emerged as the No. 1 receiver for the Broncos this season, but this game sets up well for Jeudy. The Chargers have struggled to stop opposing No. 2 receivers this season and Jeudy should see eight or more targets in this AFC West matchup.

Favorite bet: Broncos +2.5

The Broncos lost to the Texans in Week 13, while the Chargers only managed to score six points against the Patriots in a win. Despite the loss, the Broncos are playing much better right now and should be able to get a “road” win against the Chargers in Week 14 to keep their playoff hopes alive.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Matchup to watch: Cowboys RT Terence Steele vs. Eagles EDGE Haason Reddick

Steele has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, and he had his worst performance against the Eagles in Week 9. He allowed double-digit pressures and the Cowboys will need him to play much better against one of the most dynamic edge rushers in the league. Reddick could have another big performance in Week 14 if the Cowboys don’t give Steele a lot of help.

Fantasy breakout: Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks

The Cowboys have gotten Cooks more involved in the offense over the last month, racking up 332 yards and three touchdowns over the past four games. And with the secondary of the Eagles struggling right now, Cooks should have a field day at home in Dallas. The Eagles held him in check in their last meeting (one catch for seven yards), but don’t expect that to happen on Sunday night.

Favorite bet: Eagles +3.5

The Eagles won the previous matchup by five points in a competitive game. Coming off a loss, you know that the Eagles will be fired up to get their season back on track. The Cowboys still might win this game, but getting the Eagles at +3.5 is too good of a value to pass up.


Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins (-14)

Matchup to watch: Dolphins RT Austin Jackson vs. Titans EDGE Harold Landry III

The Dolphins might have found a long-term answer at right tackle with Austin Jackson. He’s been fantastic over the last month, especially as a run blocker. He’ll see a ton of Harold Landry in Week 14, who is a bendy, athletic edge rusher. This will be an excellent test for the fourth-year tackle from USC.

Fantasy breakout: Dolphins RB De’Von Achane

Achane is back for the Miami Dolphins and he looks healthy. After receiving just one touch since October 8, Achane saw 20 touches against the Commanders. While we can’t expect him to get that many touches again, he should see 14+ touches against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. And with Titans DT Jeffrey Simmons out of the lineup, this is a smash spot for Achane.  

Favorite bet: Over 47.5 (-110)

The Dolphins are among the few teams that can cover the point total by themselves in any game. That (probably) won’t happen in Week 14, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them score 35-plus points. Take the over here on Monday Night Football and expect the Dolphins to light up the scoreboard at home.


Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. New York Giants

Matchup to watch: Giants RT Tyree Phillips vs. Packers EDGE Rashan Gary

The Giants have had problems at right tackle all year, and it’s only gotten worse with Evan Neal‘s injury. Tyree Phillips is expected to start again at right tackle and he’ll be matched up against one of the best young edge rushers in the league in Rashan Gary. This matchup heavily favors the Packers, so expect the Giants to help Phillips on Monday night.

Fantasy breakout: Packers WR Jayden Reed

Christian Watson (hamstring) isn’t likely to play in Week 14, meaning more targets for Reed. The rookie saw five targets in Week 13 but only turned those opportunities into 16 yards. Expect a much more productive day from him, especially against the lackluster cornerbacks of the Giants.

Favorite bet: Over 37 (-110)

The Packers are starting to figure some things out on offense and Jordan Love has been excellent over the last month. Could the Packers score 28 points in New York on Monday? Absolutely. And that should lead to the over hitting in this matchup.