Home » These two countries are currently the ‘most likely’ to win Eurovision 2024

These two countries are currently the ‘most likely’ to win Eurovision 2024

These two countries are currently the ‘most likely’ to win Eurovision 2024

Updated betting odds ahead of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 suggest that the legendary singing competition could be won by an LGBTQ+ artist this year.

We’re now just weeks away from the return of Eurovision, this time in Malmö, Sweden, following on from the historic victory from bisexual pop icon Loreen last year.

As ever, this year’s line-up includes a number of incredible LGBTQ+ performers representing their countries on the world’s biggest music stage, including Ireland’s Bambie Thug and Lithuania’s Silvester Belt.

And now, according to the betting public, an LGBTQ+ artist looks likely to win the contest this year – but sadly, it’s not the UK’s Eurovision act and Years & Years star, Olly Alexander.

Here are the top entrants most likely to win Eurovision 2024: in rough order.


4. Ukraine: Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil with “Teresa & Maria

The fifth most likely entrant to win Eurovision 2024 right now is Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil for 2022’s winning country, Ukraine. Their thumping, broody track “Teresa & Marie” currently has an 8% chance of winning, and while it’s a strong favourite among Eurovision fans, that might not cut it.


3. Italy: Angelina Mango with “La Noia

Fiery earworm “La Noia” by Angelina Mango, Italy’s entrant, looks set to be a huge hit with the Eurovision gays regardless of whether it takes the win or not. The song is currently fourth most likely to do so, but its odds have fallen in recent weeks, so let’s not get our hopes up. It’s currently (as of May 8) sitting at 9%.


2. Switzerland: Nemo with “The Code

If the betting public are right, Switzerland’s non-binary singer and rapper Nemo may also take the Eurovision title this year, their odds are an impressive 17%, but have now been overtaken by Croatia.

The musician’s entry, “The Code”, is an electric and pulsating track combining Nemo’s soaring vocals and impressive rap ability. It’s got star-power stamped all over it, much like Loreen’s “Tattoo” did last year, and from the song alone we can tell the live performance at the grand finale will raise the roof off of Malmö Arena. Fingers crossed.


1. Croatia: Baby Lasagna with “Rim Tim Tagi Dim

With an artist name and track title like that, of course Croatia are potentially in line for the win. According to the betting odds, they’ve got a very strong shot at doing so too, with about a fifth of the public thinking they’re going to – and the odds are increasing. They’re up to a whopping 35% as of 8 May, and are now favourites to win.

“Rim Tim Tagi Dim” is a funny, silly rock-meets-rap-meets-rave song, so it’s destined to be a hit during the semi-finals and finals, too. Plus, if Baby Lasagna does win, it will be pretty historic: Croatia has never won the Eurovision Song Contest before.


Sadly, things aren’t looking too great for UK entrant Olly Alexander and his song “Dizzy”, nor for other LGBTQ+ contestants this year. Currently, Olly is the 12th favourite to win, (1%) while non-binary “ouija pop” star Bambi Thug is in 10th place.

Silvester Belt, Lithuania’s first LGBTQ+ artist to enter Eurovision, is sitting in 13th place, while Denmark’s Saba is 25th most likely to win. 

This article was updated at 5pm on 8 May 2024. You can see the very latest odds here.

The Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals take place on 7 and 9 May, and the grand final will air on Saturday 11 May.