It’s the final leg of the Florida Swing, as we get ready for tee off this Thursday in Palm Harbor, Florida for the 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. While not the field and stakes are not quite at the caliber of recent Designated events, Copperhead is a great challenge and should be an exciting watch with several top-20 players here to tee it up. Below we’ll go through my final Valspar Championship bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Valspar Championship Invitational bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Valspar Championship preview.
HOW I BUILT MY VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD
The Valspar Championship is expected to present the field with a much sterner test than the last two years, as winds appear to be up, and efforts have been made to grow out the rough and tighten the fairways even further. The favorites all enter this week with their own blemishes whether it be inconsistent ball-striking or putting, so naturally I’ve concentrated my outright exposure in the 25 to 50-1 odds range in conditions that are expected to reward the most complete golfers this week.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for Valspar Championship bets.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for Valspar Championship bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Tommy Fleetwood
My Bet: +2800
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Fleetwood left a sour taste in our mouths after cratering his top-20 hopes with a double bogey on the 71st hole of THE PLAYERS Championship. In fairness to Tommy, he struck his approach well into the 17th’s island green, and got a bit unlikely with a mid-air gust which guided his ball short into the water. Had the wind blown more to Fleetwood’s favor, we’d be looking at a T13 finish at THE PLAYERS and a top-6 approach performance among the field. I’ll take it as a sign that his unfortunate double-bogey has led to a more appealing 28-1 outright number at the Valspar Championship, and will give this a go one more time with a short term memory.
Fleetwood is one of only two players to rank top-20 in both SG: Ball Striking and SG: P (Bermuda), the basic formula needed to attack the Copperhead Course. In trending approach form, I like Fleetwood’s prospects to improve on the T16 finish in his Valspar debut last year.
Adam Hadwin
My Bet: +2800
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I’m plugging my nose on the sub-30-1 number for Hadwin, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Hadwin in recent formidable tests with the best players on the PGA TOUR enough to trust him in a buy-high spot here.
Hadwin picked up his only career win here in 2017, and has found repeated success with finishes of T12 and T7 as well here over the next four years. He’s already posted four top-15 finishes this season, his most recent three coming in similarly difficult conditions at the Houston Open, WM Phoenix Open, and THE PLAYERS. At THE PLAYERS, Hadwin led the field in SG: OTT, which features a very similar test of tight positional tee shots both left-to-right and right-to-left. Hadwin is a very good long-term putter, and seems due for even better results once he’s able to pair up his trending tee-to-green play with a spike putting week.
Denny McCarthy
My Bet: +4000
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This is a safety blanket play for me after enduring one too many missed 6-footers from Collin Morikawa on my outright card at THE PLAYERS Championship. I’m actually quite certain every time I’ve bet McCarthy, it’s come immediately after a torturous “Team No Putt” outright sweat.
Last year’s Valspar Championship was a perfect example of the script McCarthy will likely need to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory. With forced layups making it difficult to gain a significant edge off-the-tee, and difficult long-iron approaches inevitably missing the greens, the 2022 Valspar Championship boiled down to a short game contest, where Sam Burns (8.2 SG: Short Game) edged past Davis Riley (12.2 SG: Short Game) in a playoff. Like Burns and Riley, McCarthy is a Bermuda specialist, averaging 4+ SG: Short Game over three prior appearances at the Valspar Championship. With three top-15 finishes over his last five starts, McCarthy looks poised to improve on his career best T9 finish at this event back in 2019.
Wyndham Clark
My Bet: +4500
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Since writing him up as my Spotlight featured player, I’m comfortable designating this to officially be #ClarkWeek. I’m not going to go as far to say he will win the Valspar Championship, but there’s never been a better time than now for Clark to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory. Long reduced to the profile of a bomber with a good short game, the shortcomings with his approach play in between has held Clark back from reaching his full potential on TOUR. He’s emphatically flipped a switch this year however, as his latest four starts leading into THE PLAYERS were the four best approach performances of his entire career. At THE PLAYERS, he lost 2.1 strokes on approach due to one water-bound tee shot on 17. Removing that one hole, THE PLAYERS would have also ranked as a top-10 career approach week for Clark. Ranking No. 3 in my model this week, I’m all systems go on Clark to contend for his first PGA TOUR win.
Trey Mullinax
My Bet: +16000
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This is not a field loaded with depth, and as such, there weren’t many viable longshots that caught my eye, with the lone exception of Mullinax. A top-10 finisher at this event in 2018, Mullinax has always looked most comfortable on Bermuda greens, particularly on the Florida swing. He’s a boom or bust player with five top-12 finishes over his last 12 starts, so we’ll chase the boom potential at lofty 160-1 odds.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Gary Woodland
My Bet: +6000
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Site of his first career PGA TOUR win in 2011, the Copperhead Course is the perfect venue for Woodland to flex his elite ball-striking skills in difficult conditions. I worry about his putter over the course of four rounds, but he’s proven he can get out to a hot start, jumping out to the first round lead most recently at the 2023 CJ Cup and 2022 Scottish Open.
Sam Ryder
My Bet: +8000
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It takes a streaky putter to make a FRL run, and that is the best skillset in Ryder’s arsenal at the moment, having gained over 4.6 strokes putting in three of his last four starts. A strong long-term approach player, Ryder is due for a little more positive regression in that department, with a profile that suits this tough, positional course well.
Garrick Higgo
My Bet: +9000
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There is no one on TOUR who can randomly string together a birdie streak like Higgo, which makes him an appealing FRL consideration most weeks. He looks to be in form now, gaining strokes tee-to-green in four consecutive events, so I like the value here at long odds.
Trey Mullinax
My Bet: +9000
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Mullinax joined Gary Woodland as the co-leaders after round 1 at the CJ Cup earlier this season. His combination of length off the tee, par-5 scoring, and Bermuda putting are the perfect recipe to go low at this course as well.
Akshay Bhatia
My Bet: +9500
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One of my favorite players to root for in all of golf, Akshay earned a special temporary exemption onto the PGA TOUR for the rest of the 2023 season after a runner up showing on a Sponsor’s Exemption at the Puerto Rico Open in his previous start. That job security should loosen him up in Round 1 now, as he’ll look to continue his hot play in his Valspar Championship debut.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top-20 Finish: Wyndham Clark
My Bet: +175
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There are no half measures in #ClarkWeek so my confidence in him to contend from an outright perspective naturally trickles into the top-20 market as well. His past results at the Valspar Championship may not be inspiring, but his 3.7 average strokes gained on approach over the last five events make this the first time he’s ever entered this positional set up in positive approach form.
Top-20 Finish: Taylor Moore
My Bet: +320
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One of the more reliable players on TOUR in the placement market this season, Moore has finished top-40 in five of his last six starts leading into this week. Over his last 20 events, Moore is positive across all four major strokes gained categories, proving he is not a one-dimensional player and has many different paths to fire a high finish. Ranking No. 28 in my model this week, Moore’s putter continues to trend well in the Florida Swing, and is in solid ball-striking form leading in.
Top-20 Finish: Sam Ryder
My Bet: +360
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Ryder displayed his best performance OTT in over 18 months at THE PLAYERS Championship, which is an encouraging sign leading into the Valspar Championship when considering the similar tee shots in store again this week. With three top-20s over his last five starts, I like Ryder’s fit for what this positional course demands.
Top-20 Finish: Trey Mullinax
My Bet: +500
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With five top-12 finishes over his last 12 starts and a T8 showing at this event in 2018, Mullinax has left no doubt he at least has the potential to finish top-20 this week. I’m happy to buy low after an early exit at an event as volatile as THE PLAYERS, as his ranks inside the top-40 in SG: OTT, Prox: 175+, and Scrambling Gained make for an appealing floor at the Valspar Championship.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Wyndham Clark
Have I mentioned it’s #ClarkWeek? This is not a deep field, with not a ton of money at stake in the purse, so it seems like the time is now to jump on Wyndham Clark on the heels of 10 consecutive made cuts. He’s currently in the best approach form of career leading into a course that demands precision, and the best results of his career have actually come on shorter, club-down courses like Port Royal GC, St. George’s G&C, and PGA National. Sam Burns will be the chalk play this week, and with Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, and Adam Hadwin expected to eat up a majority of the ownership, I think Clark presents a sound pivot option.
If not Clark, I would also consider Adam Hadwin, Sam Burns, or Tommy Fleetwood as OAD picks.
VALSPAR CHAMPIOSNHIP: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s Valspar Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own Valspar Championship bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 WGC Dell Match Play Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
VALSPAR BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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