This year’s Valspar Championship will take place Thursday, March 16 through Sunday, March 19 at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida. Sam Burns defended his title at this event last year after defeating Davis Riley in a playoff and will go for the three-peat in his title defense this year. Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2023 contest, which will include Valspar Championship odds as soon as they are posted by top sportsbooks.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
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The field for the 2023 Valspar Championship will be officially announced on Friday, March 10. Until then, here are the odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites a month out from the event.
- Justin Thomas +1000
- Sam Burns +1400
- Jordan Spieth +1600
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
- Tommy Fleetwood +2200
INNISBROOK RESORT COURSE PREVIEW
Innisbrook Resort has been a fixture on the PGA TOUR’s Florida Swing for over 20 years. Over that time, it has consistently rewarded precise ball strikers who are comfortable on these Florida Bermuda greens. Innisbrook has a very unique layout for a Florida golf course, featuring many tight doglegs, elevation changes, and penal rough. A combination of above-average distance and top-tier iron play are key to finding success in this event.
How It Breaks Down
Looking at the hole-by-hole breakdown, Innisbrook is unique in that it features a bonus of five Par-3s to go along with four Par 5s and nine Par 4s. The Par 3s are all challenging, with all five averaging over-par. So despite the extra Par 3, it will be difficult to gain an advantage with Par-3 scoring, as most players will simply look to make Par and move on.
Of the nine Par 4s, five are funneled to the 400-450 range, which is also unique on TOUR, where the Par 4s usually fall in the 450-500 range.
Given the difficulty around this course, it has always been crucial to capitalize on the Par 5s, with a very strong correlation between par-5 Scoring and success at this event over the years.
With OTT advantage being mitigated here, there is an added premium on SG: APP and Scrambling. Players who excel in both categories should set up well for success. Similar to what we saw last week at TPC Sawgrass, the greens will feature an over-seeded blend of Bermuda and Poa. This should react differently from pure Florida Bermuda greens, so I’ll be looking more broadly at total recent putting in my modeling this week.
INNISBROOK RESORT COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,340
- Par: 71 (5x 3s / 9x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Greens: Bermuda, over seeded with Poa (Fast)
- Average Green Size: 5,822 Sq. Ft. (Average)
- Average Fairway Width: 28 Yards (Below-Average)
- Rough: 3″ Bermuda (Thick)
- Architect: Larry Packard
- Historic Cut Line: +2 to +4
- Comp Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, Accordia Golf Narashino, TPC Southwind, Sedgefield CC, Riviera CC, Colonial CC, CC of Jackson, TPC Twin Cities
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: BETTING TRENDS
Over the last 10 years, we’ve seen a mixed bag of favorites and longshots go on to win the Valspar Championship. The event has produced successive back-to-back winners between Sam Burns and Paul Casey over the last four years, proving that course history is an important and repeatable stat to predict contenders at this event.
Here are consensus pre-tournament outright odds for the last 10 winners of Valspar Championship.
| Year | Winner | Pre-Tournament Odds | Winning Score | Field Median Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Sam Burns | +2500 | -17 | -6 |
| 2021 | Sam Burns | +8000 | -17 | -4 |
| 2020 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | Paul Casey | +2500 | -8 | Even |
| 2018 | Paul Casey | +2500 | -10 | -1 |
| 2017 | Adam Hadwin | +12500 | -14 | -2 |
| 2016 | Charl Schwartzel | +3300 | -7 | +2 |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +1600 | -10 | -1 |
| 2014 | John Senden | +12500 | -7 | +2 |
| 2013 | Kevin Streelman | +20000 | -10 | Even |
HOW TO BET ON THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
There are several different betting approaches to the 2023 Valspar Championship. No matter which online sportsbook you prefer, they will most likely offer an extensive golf betting menu ranging from overall tournament winner to matchups and individual hole props.
Obviously, the bigger payout potential is with correctly picking the overall tournament winner. The opening tournament odds can start in the +700 to +1000 range for the favorites. If you scroll through the tournament winner list, you will find longer odds for some of the PGA Tour’s top golfers. Before making a selection, consider researching which players have fared the best playing the Copperhead Course as well as any weather conditions that might impact play.
However, the Round 1 clubhouse leader could end up falling out of contention in the later rounds. Consider backing the same golfer to turn in a top-10 or top-20 finish. Even with the odds being much shorter, there is greater possibility of having a winning ticket.